⚡ Industry X-Ray

Decision-Making

What is the gambler's fallacy?

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The Bias: After five reds at roulette, why do people bet black?

They believe black is "due". Independent events have no memory. A famous 1913 Monte Carlo run saw black come up 26 times. Source: Wikipedia – Gambler's fallacy

Where It Shows Up: Where else?

Thinking a child "must" be a girl after several boys. Each event's odds stay the same. Source: Wikipedia – Gambler's fallacy

The Fix: Fix?

Ask whether the events are truly independent. If independent, the past tells you nothing. Source: Wikipedia – Gambler's fallacy

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